⚠ PROVISIONAL — the engine is still being built. These are early-calibration forecasts and will be re-run by the finished engine. This is a work in progress; judge the model by the track record once it's complete.
politics · mirror
RESOLVED YES · MISS
Will Sticker Mule CEO Anthony Constantino win the NY-21 Republican Primary? (mirrors Manifold 'ny21-republican-primary-winner').
27%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 77% -50pts
⚙ incentive map Anthony Constantino (candidate) seeks nomination to gain office, fundraising, and personal brand; GOP establishment (e.g., Robert Smul) wants to control seat and avoid fringe; local Republican voters want a winnable, moderate candidate; party officials aim to maximize general election chances; donor
Constantino's outsider business background offers fundraising but lacks party infrastructure; GOP officials and donors have strong incentives to back the establishment Assembly member, who is seen as more electable in a swing district. Historically, similar outsider businessmen lose primaries when party elites coalesce around a moderate. Voter turnout in low‑profile NY primaries tends to favor organized party bases. [ensemble: incentives 32%, history 27%, signals 27%; median 27%, spread 5pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
geopolitics · mirror
OPEN
Hamas-Israel hostilities in Gaza resume by 2026-06-30 (mirrors Manifold 'hamasisrael-hostilities-in-gaza-res').
66%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 40% +26pts
⚙ incentive map Hamas: seeks political leverage, relief of blockade, and internal legitimacy; hidden incentive to force concessions via renewed fighting. Israel: aims to neutralize rocket threat, maintain deterrence, domestic security credibility; perverse incentive to use limited strikes to pressure Hamas while av
Both sides face strong incentives to test the ceasefire: Hamas gains bargaining power from renewed attacks, while Israel gains domestic legitimacy by responding to violations. Historical patterns show ceasefires are fragile and tend to break when either side perceives a tactical advantage, making a resumption by the end of June likely. [ensemble: incentives 71%, history 66%, signals 63%; median 66%, spread 8pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.3-incentive-global · forecast 2026-06-20
crypto · original
RESOLVED YES · HIT
Median PulseChain base fee over the 24h before 2026-07-01 stays below 2x its 2026-06-21 median.
74%
our P(YES) · confidence high
The threshold (≈1.26 M) is well above typical median fees; past data show most 2‑week periods remain under this level unless a major launch or airdrop triggers a frenzy, which is unlikely in the next 10 days. Current fee levels are stable, so the chance of a sudden spike large enough to double the median is modest. [ensemble: outside 66%, inside 78%, neutral 74%; median 74%, spread 12pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.1-free-ensemble · forecast 2026-06-20
crypto · original
RESOLVED YES · MISS
WPLS/USD on 2026-07-05 is within +/-10% of its 2026-06-21 value.
35%
our P(YES) · confidence high
Historically, low‑liquidity tokens like WPLS exhibit high short‑term volatility, often moving more than 10% in a fortnight. However, periods of relative calm occur, especially when broader market sentiment is stable, giving a modest chance of staying within the band. The current price level shows no extreme recent spikes, slightly raising the odds above the baseline. [ensemble: outside 35%, inside 45%, neutral 35%; median 35%, spread 10pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.1-free-ensemble · forecast 2026-06-20
crypto · mirror
RESOLVED NO · MISS
BTC/USD close on 2026-07-05 is higher than its 2026-06-21 close.
53%
our P(YES) · confidence high
Historical two‑week windows show BTC up about 55% of the time, reflecting a modest upward bias. The current price is exactly at the baseline, giving no momentum advantage, so the forecast leans slightly toward the base rate. Adjusting for the lack of any directional signal brings the probability down a few points. [ensemble: outside 55%, inside 53%, neutral 53%; median 53%, spread 2pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.1-free-ensemble · forecast 2026-06-20
crypto · mirror
RESOLVED YES · HIT
The ETH/BTC ratio on 2026-07-12 is higher than on 2026-06-21.
52%
our P(YES) · confidence high
The ratio is currently flat at the baseline, giving no directional signal. Historical crypto ratio movements are roughly symmetric over short horizons, but slight mean‑reversion bias suggests a marginally higher chance of a rise. Balancing the neutral base rate with this slight edge yields ~52% probability. [ensemble: outside 48%, inside 52%, neutral 52%; median 52%, spread 4pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.1-free-ensemble · forecast 2026-06-20
macro · mirror
RESOLVED YES · MISS
The next US headline CPI YoY print is less than or equal to the prior print.
36%
our P(YES) · confidence high
Historically the CPI YoY series is roughly balanced around 0.5, but recent momentum has been upward (4.27% after 3.95%). Positive momentum reduces the chance of a reversal in the next month, pulling the estimate below the base rate. However, inflation has shown occasional pull‑backs after sharp rises, so the probability is not near zero. [ensemble: outside 40%, inside 35%, neutral 36%; median 36%, spread 5pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.1-free-ensemble · forecast 2026-06-20
macro · mirror
RESOLVED NO · MISS
US CPI inflation (CPI-U, 12-month, June 2026) exceeds 4.0% (mirrors Manifold 'will-us-cpi-inflation-cpiu-12month').
78%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 75% +3pts
The latest FRED data shows a 12‑month CPI-U change of 4.27% for May 2026, indicating the June 2026 figure will likely remain above 4.0%. Historical base rate is low (~22%), but recent inflationary pressure and the market price of ~75% for a YES outcome shift the estimate upward. The combination of current data and market consensus suggests a high probability, though not certain. [ensemble: outside 68%, inside 78%, neutral 78%; median 78%, spread 10pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.2-news-ensemble · forecast 2026-06-20
society · mirror
RESOLVED NO · MISS
Americans' confidence in the Supreme Court declines in 2026 (mirrors Manifold 'will-americans-confidence-in-the-su-EClqP5dpyZ').
78%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 73% +5pts
⚙ incentive map Key actors: (1) Politicians & party elites – incentive to mobilize base by portraying the Court as either illegitimate or a threat, boosting electoral advantage; (2) Media outlets – incentive to amplify conflict and sensational rulings to drive engagement and ad revenue; (3) Interest groups (e.g., v
The incentive structure pushes elites and media to frame the Court as either corrupt or dangerous, rewarding polarization with higher audience metrics. Historically, such framing leads to rapid erosion of institutional trust, especially after controversial decisions. Current polls already show confidence near historic lows, matching the pattern, so the market’s 73 % price is well‑grounded. [ensemble: incentives 74%, history 78%, signals 78%; median 78%, spread 4pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.3-incentive-global · forecast 2026-06-20
sports · mirror
RESOLVED NO · HIT
Will USMNT reach the quarterfinals of World Cup 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'will-usmnt-reach-the-quarterfinals').
37%
our P(YES) · confidence med
vs crowd 45% -8pts
⚙ incentive map USMNT players/coaches (career prestige, endorsement money, national hero status), US Soccer Federation (ticket revenue, sponsorship, political capital), host‑nation fans & local businesses (stadium sales, tourism), rival teams (avoid upset, advance), FIFA (successful tournament narrative).
Home‑field advantage and automatic qualification give the US a strong incentive to field a competitive squad, while financial stakes for players and the federation push for short‑term performance. However, the expanded 48‑team format dilutes overall quality and introduces more potential upsets, keeping the historical quarterfinal odds modest. The incentive to over‑perform is high, but the baseline odds for a host nation reaching the last eight remain around 30‑35%. [ensemble: incentives 37%, history 32%, signals 66%; median 37%, spread 34pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
macro · mirror
RESOLVED NO · HIT
The next scheduled FOMC decision is a rate CUT (lower fed funds upper target vs the prior meeting).
32%
our P(YES) · confidence high
The base rate of cuts is about 30% across many cycles. Current Fed funds upper target is 3.75% with inflation still above target and no clear sign of a rapid slowdown, making a cut less likely than a hold. However, the recent easing in labor market and modest inflation decline provide some upside, raising the estimate slightly above the base rate. [ensemble: outside 27%, inside 32%, neutral 34%; median 32%, spread 7pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.1-free-ensemble · forecast 2026-06-20
tech · mirror
RESOLVED NO · HIT
An open-source AI model achieves a perfect score on IMO 2026 (mirrors the Manifold market 'opensource-ai-model-gets-perfect-im').
12%
our P(YES) · confidence med
vs crowd 45% -33pts
The base rate of achieving a perfect IMO score is vanishingly small, with no known AI ever attaining it. The market currently prices the event at 45%, reflecting optimism but lacking concrete evidence. Given the lack of any demonstrated open-source AI capable of such performance, the probability is adjusted upward from the base rate but remains low. [ensemble: outside 12%, inside 36%, neutral 12%; median 12%, spread 24pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.1-free-ensemble · forecast 2026-06-20
crypto · mirror
RESOLVED NO · MISS
Bitcoin (BTC-USD) closes above $65,000 on 2026-07-31 (mirrors the Manifold market 'will-bitcoin-btcusd-close-above-650').
55%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 51% +4pts
The crowd price is 51%, reflecting a near‑even split. Bitcoin is currently at $63.8k, about 2% below the $65k threshold, and its typical monthly volatility is around 5%, giving a modest edge for a rise. No strong new catalyst appears, so the probability is only slightly above the crowd estimate. [ensemble: outside 52%, inside 55%, neutral 55%; median 55%, spread 3pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.2-news-ensemble · forecast 2026-06-20
science · mirror
RESOLVED YES · HIT
Will SpaceX launch Starship Flight 13 on or before July 31, 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'will-spacex-launch-starship-flight-Isn9L2ysPc').
66%
our P(YES) · confidence low
vs crowd 27% +39pts
⚙ incentive map SpaceX (CEO Elon Musk, investors, customers) – incentive to demonstrate Starship reliability, secure government contracts, attract commercial payloads, and meet FAA milestones; FAA – incentive to see safe, on‑schedule launches to justify regulatory approvals; competitors (Blue Origin, Arianespace) –
SpaceX faces strong financial and reputational incentives to hit the July 31 FAA milestone, and it has already completed key hardware tests, suggesting it will push to launch rather than delay. The FAA’s desire to keep the schedule also reduces bureaucratic drag, while the competitive landscape rewards a timely launch. These aligned incentives historically translate into a >2/3 chance of meeting announced dates. [ensemble: incentives 74%, history 35%, signals 66%; median 66%, spread 39pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
sports · mirror
RESOLVED YES · MISS
Will a previous winner of the World Cup win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? (mirrors Manifold 'will-a-previous-winner-of-the-world-0c2e4c1fa9ca').
44%
our P(YES) · confidence low
vs crowd 78% -34pts
⚙ incentive map National teams (players, federations, sponsors) seek prestige and financial rewards; no extra incentive exists for being a past champion beyond usual motivations, while all challengers have similar incentives to win.
The incentive structure for all teams is essentially identical—maximizing performance for prize money, sponsorship, and national pride—so there is no systematic advantage for former champions. Historical repeat‑winner frequency (~20%) therefore provides the best guide. [ensemble: incentives 22%, history 44%, signals 74%; median 44%, spread 52pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
economics · mirror
RESOLVED YES · MISS
Will Ford Q2, 2026 Gross Profit exceed Tesla's (mirrors Manifold 'will-ford-q2-2026-gross-profit-exce').
22%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 65% -43pts
⚙ incentive map Ford management (bonus tied to profit beats, pressure to show EV success) vs Tesla management (stock‑based compensation tied to margin growth, less incentive to under‑report); investors and analysts (favor positive surprise); auditors (neutral but risk‑averse).
Ford’s incentives push for aggressive accounting and short‑term profit boosts, but its lower margin business and larger legacy costs make a genuine gross‑profit outperformance unlikely; Tesla’s incentives align with maintaining high margins and it has consistently higher gross profit. Historical patterns dominate despite any reporting wiggle‑room. [ensemble: incentives 22%, history 22%, signals 27%; median 22%, spread 5pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
macro · mirror
RESOLVED NO · HIT
The NASDAQ crashes before 2026-08-30 (mirrors Manifold 'will-the-nasdaq-crash-before-aug-30'; crash defined by the source market).
24%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 24% +0pts
The crowd price of 24% already incorporates current market sentiment and recent volatility. Historical base rates suggest a ~20% chance of a crash in any 2‑year period, so the market's modest upward adjustment is reasonable. No strong new evidence pushes the probability far from the crowd estimate. [ensemble: outside 26%, inside 24%, neutral 24%; median 24%, spread 2pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.2-news-ensemble · forecast 2026-06-20
geopolitics · mirror
OPEN
The US and Iran sign a formal end-of-war agreement by 2026-08-31 (mirrors Manifold 'will-the-us-and-iran-sign-a-formal').
71%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 58% +13pts
⚙ incentive map US: avoid costly prolonged conflict, protect shipping lanes, restore global credibility, domestic political pressure to show success; Iran: lift sanctions, gain economic relief, preserve regime legitimacy, avoid further devastation; Regional powers (e.g., Saudi Arabia, Israel, Pakistan): manage secu
The US faces escalating costs and diplomatic isolation, while Iran urgently needs sanction relief; both have strong incentives to convert the 60‑day cease‑fire into a durable settlement. Historical cases (e.g., 1990‑91 Gulf cease‑fire to formal peace, 2003 Iraq cease‑fire to diplomatic accords) show that when a credible interim deal is signed and external mediators (Pakistan) are involved, the transition to a formal treaty is more likely than not. The recent publicized memorandum and media coverage indicate momentum, pushing probability above the crowd baseline. [ensemble: incentives 71%, history 71%, signals 66%; median 71%, spread 5pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.3-incentive-global · forecast 2026-06-20
geopolitics · mirror
RESOLVED NO · HIT
Will territory change hands between Georgia (in the Caucasus) and separatists/Russia before Sep 2026 (mirrors Manifold 'will-territory-change-hands-between').
22%
our P(YES) · confidence med
vs crowd 28% -6pts
⚙ incentive map Georgia: regain internationally recognized borders, domestic political legitimacy, NATO aspirations; limited military capability, heavy reliance on Western aid. Russia: maintain strategic foothold, prevent NATO expansion, project power, domestic narrative of protecting compatriots; can use low‑inten
Russia gains more by keeping the breakaway regions as frozen conflicts than by risking open war that could trigger NATO response; Georgia lacks the capacity to retake them and gains more from diplomatic pressure. The incentive for a sudden territorial shift is low for both sides, making a change before Sep 2026 unlikely. [ensemble: incentives 22%, history 7%, signals 27%; median 22%, spread 20pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
sports · mirror
RESOLVED NO · HIT
Will Carlos Alcaraz win at least 2 Grand Slams in 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'will-carlos-alcaraz-win-at-least-2-UAsREZuPt2').
42%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 26% +16pts
⚙ incentive map Carlos Alcaraz (career legacy, prize money, sponsor bonuses) → wants multiple titles; ATP/Grand Slam organizers (higher viewership, ticket sales) → promote star players; sponsors (brand exposure) → reward performance with bonuses; competitors (protect ranking) → may elevate own play but also risk in
Alcaraz has already secured the Australian Open, satisfying his immediate financial and legacy incentives, making a second Slam highly rewarding. The marginal cost (physical strain) is offset by sponsor bonuses and ranking points, and past elite players who win one Slam early in the year often capture at least one more (e.g., Federer 2004, Djokovic 2021). However, injury risk and rising competition temper the odds. [ensemble: incentives 42%, history 44%, signals 42%; median 42%, spread 2pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
politics · mirror
OPEN
The US government shuts down on October 1, 2026 (mirrors Manifold 'us-government-shutdown-on-october-1').
35%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 45% -10pts
⚙ incentive map President (avoid political backlash, maintain public services, preserve legacy) + Senate Democrats (prevent GOP concessions, avoid voter anger) + Senate Republicans (extract policy concessions, signal fiscal conservatism) + Federal employees (seek pay continuity) + Public opinion (punishes perceived
All major actors face higher political costs from a shutdown on the first day of the fiscal year than from a mid‑year lapse, and they can extract limited concessions through brief brinkmanship. Historical patterns show they usually reach a stop‑gap deal before Oct 1, making a shutdown less likely than the market price suggests. [ensemble: incentives 35%, history 27%, signals 42%; median 35%, spread 15pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.3-incentive-global · forecast 2026-06-20
politics · mirror
OPEN
If Trump wins, will marijuana be federally rescheduled before the 2026 midterms? (mirrors Manifold 'if-trump-wins-will-marijuana-be-fed').
34%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 37% -3pts
⚙ incentive map President Trump (seeks electoral boost from pro‑cannabis voters and industry donors, but also wants to appear tough on drugs to satisfy base and law‑enforcement lobby); DEA/Justice Dept (bureaucratic inertia, career incentives to maintain Schedule I status, but also pressure from industry and public
Trump's incentive to court both the libertarian‑leaning electorate and the law‑and‑order base creates a conflict that usually results in a low‑key approach; the DEA's institutional resistance further lowers the chance of rapid action. Past attempts under similar mixed incentives have stalled, making a pre‑midterm rescheduling unlikely. [ensemble: incentives 27%, history 34%, signals 35%; median 34%, spread 8pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
politics · mirror
OPEN
Republicans maintain control of the US Senate after the 2026 midterms (mirrors Manifold 'will-republicans-maintain-control-o-hphq20hIhn').
62%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 55% +7pts
⚙ incentive map Republican incumbents & party: preserve power, fundraising, committee chair perks; Democratic challengers: flip seats, national party support; Voters: respond to economic conditions, presidential approval, local candidate quality; State parties: redistricting & candidate recruitment incentives; Dono
Republicans start 2026 with a sizable majority (53‑47) and face a historically favorable map; the president's party (Democrats) typically loses ground in midterms, and Republican incumbents have strong fundraising and institutional incentives to hold seats. Historical midterm patterns and the current modest market price together push the odds above 50%. [ensemble: incentives 62%, history 62%, signals 58%; median 62%, spread 4pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.3-incentive-global · forecast 2026-06-20
crypto · mirror
OPEN
Will Bitcoin exceed $100,000 before December 31, 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'will-bitcoin-exceed-100000-before-d').
27%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 24% +3pts
⚙ incentive map Bitcoin miners (earn more BTC if price rises, but also face higher electricity costs and potential regulatory pressure); large holders/institutions (seek capital appreciation but also risk of drawdown and regulatory scrutiny); retail speculators (chase upside, driven by FOMO, but also limited capita
Miners and institutions will support price gains up to the point where higher costs, regulatory clampdowns, or margin calls outweigh upside, leading to a ceiling around current levels. Retail hype is insufficient to push past $100k without a macro shock or major adoption catalyst, which are unlikely given tightening regulation and macro uncertainty. [ensemble: incentives 27%, history 27%, signals 22%; median 27%, spread 5pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
geopolitics · mirror
OPEN
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-in-2026').
34%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 29% +5pts
⚙ incentive map Russia: preserve regime legitimacy, avoid costly attrition, extract concessions, maintain strategic depth; Ukraine: secure territorial integrity, obtain security guarantees, sustain Western support; United States/Western allies: avoid escalation, limit Russian gains, keep NATO credibility, domestic
Russia faces mounting economic sanctions and war weariness but gains from a frozen front; Ukraine needs a durable security guarantee that Russia is unlikely to grant. Both sides can extract political capital from a limited truce, yet each also benefits from keeping pressure to improve bargaining power. Historical analogs show such incentives produce short‑term pauses, not lasting ceasefires. [ensemble: incentives 22%, history 35%, signals 34%; median 34%, spread 13pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
geopolitics · mirror
OPEN
Will X be banned by more than one NATO country in 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'will-x-be-banned-by-more-than-one-n').
27%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 31% -4pts
⚙ incentive map NATO member governments (domestic political pressure to regulate harmful content, desire to appear tough on misinformation, lobbying by local media and consumer groups) vs X's owners (protect revenue, avoid precedent, leverage US diplomatic influence) vs US government (protect a US‑based tech champi
Domestic political incentives push several NATO countries toward strong action, but the hidden incentive of avoiding a US‑backed tech ban and the economic cost to the platform keep outright bans rare. Past cases show regulators prefer fines and content rules over bans, so a multi‑country ban remains unlikely. [ensemble: incentives 27%, history 17%, signals 27%; median 27%, spread 10pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
politics · mirror
OPEN
Will the 2026 US Midterm Elections generally be considered free and fair? (mirrors Manifold '2026-us-midterm-elections-generally').
74%
our P(YES) · confidence med
vs crowd 77% -3pts
⚙ incentive map Key actors: (1) Federal election officials & DOJ – incentive to maintain legitimacy of institutions (career, budget, future appointments) but also political pressure to favor party in power; (2) State election administrators – incentive to follow federal guidance for resources but also local partisa
Federal officials have strong career and institutional incentives to avoid a legitimacy crisis, and the bipartisan consensus among state officials historically leans toward preserving the process. While partisan actors have incentives to claim irregularities, the cost of a widely accepted fraud claim (legal challenges, loss of donor support) is high. Historical analogs show that even under aggressive partisan attacks, the system usually self‑corrects and is still deemed free and fair. [ensemble: incentives 62%, history 74%, signals 85%; median 74%, spread 23pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
politics · mirror
OPEN
Intoxicating hemp-derived THC products federally banned in U.S. by end of 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'intoxicating-hempderived-thc-produc').
27%
our P(YES) · confidence low
vs crowd 73% -46pts
⚙ incentive map Key actors: U.S. Senate (avoids alienating agricultural lobby and cannabis industry, seeks tax revenue), House (passed farm bill but limited), hemp industry (wants market access, opposes ban), law‑enforcement/DEA (prefers clear prohibition to avoid enforcement ambiguity), public health groups (mixed
The Senate faces powerful agricultural and cannabis lobbying and a fiscal incentive from a legal market, making a total ban politically costly. Past legislative patterns show compromise via THC caps, not prohibition. With the House already limiting THC levels, the incremental step to a ban offers little added benefit to most stakeholders. [ensemble: incentives 25%, history 27%, signals 62%; median 27%, spread 37pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
politics · mirror
OPEN
Will labour top a national/GB poll for the next UK election by the end of 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'will-labour-top-a-nationalgb-poll-f').
66%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 55% +11pts
⚙ incentive map Key actors: Labour Party (desire to win power, control policy, funding, media narrative); Conservative Party (desire to retain power, avoid loss of patronage, limit policy reversals); Voters (economic security, identity, anti‑incumbency sentiment); Media & pollsters (drive audience, influence narrat
Labour currently enjoys a sizable lead in poll‑of‑polls and the Conservatives face low approval, economic headwinds, and internal division, creating strong incentives for voters to switch. Historical patterns show opposition parties under such conditions typically overtake incumbents, and donors/media tend to reinforce the leading narrative, further boosting Labour’s visibility. [ensemble: incentives 66%, history 63%, signals 66%; median 66%, spread 3pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
macro · mirror
OPEN
Will the S&P 500 close above 7883.34 on December 31, 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'will-the-sp-500-close-above-788334').
58%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 52% +6pts
⚙ incentive map Institutional investors (mutual funds, pension funds, ETFs) want to beat benchmarks and avoid underperformance penalties; hedge funds chase momentum and avoid being caught short; corporate executives care about stock‑based compensation tied to index levels; the Federal Reserve and Treasury benefit f
The dominant incentives push capital into equities as long as earnings growth and policy support remain positive, creating self‑reinforcing buying pressure. Historical patterns show markets tend to ride bullish forecasts to new highs, unless a sharp shock occurs, which current macro signals do not indicate. [ensemble: incentives 58%, history 58%, signals 65%; median 58%, spread 7pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
macro · mirror
OPEN
AI bubble pops in 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'ai-bubble-pops-in-2026').
45%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 20% +25pts
⚙ incentive map VCs & public‑market investors chase outsized returns and fear missing out, so they keep funding AI startups even as valuations become detached; AI firms with heavy debt and burn rates want to raise more capital and may over‑promise, creating pressure to deliver quickly; large tech incumbents and gov
The incentive to keep the narrative alive pushes capital into AI despite mounting debt and weak fundamentals, but the hidden incentive of debt‑laden firms to avoid default creates a breaking point. When financing dries up, the over‑extension typically triggers a rapid correction, as seen in past dot‑com and crypto bubbles. [ensemble: incentives 57%, history 42%, signals 45%; median 45%, spread 15pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
macro · mirror
OPEN
Will US unemployment get above 6% in 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'will-us-unemployment-get-above-6-in').
15%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 21% -6pts
⚙ incentive map Federal Reserve (maintain price stability, avoid recession), Treasury (manage debt service, political pressure for low unemployment), businesses (hire based on demand, avoid labor costs), workers (seek jobs, accept wages), politicians (claim economic success, avoid blame for high unemployment)
Current data show unemployment stable at 4.3% with Fed projecting similar levels; absent a major shock, incentives push policymakers to keep rates low and businesses to maintain hiring. Historical analogues suggest a jump above 6% requires a recessionary shock, which is not evident, so the chance remains low but not zero. [ensemble: incentives 15%, history 15%, signals 25%; median 15%, spread 10pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
macro · mirror
OPEN
Us market crash in 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'us-market-crash-in-2026').
35%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 19% +16pts
⚙ incentive map Federal Reserve (avoid recession, maintain credibility, political pressure to keep unemployment low); Large institutional investors (protect assets, avoid losses, but also benefit from buying low); Politicians (short‑term electoral incentives to claim growth, long‑term fiscal pressures); Media/analy
The Fed’s incentive to pre‑emptively tighten policy to curb inflation creates a hidden risk of over‑tightening, while institutional investors have a perverse incentive to sell into weakness to rebalance, potentially amplifying a downturn. However, political pressure to avoid a recession and the historical tendency of markets to rebound after policy easing lower the odds of a sustained crash. [ensemble: incentives 35%, history 27%, signals 35%; median 35%, spread 8pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
economics · mirror
OPEN
Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'will-the-federal-reserve-hike-inter-gcPlnRdpUp').
35%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 61% -26pts
⚙ incentive map Federal Reserve Board (maintain credibility, avoid inflation, protect employment); Federal Open Market Committee members (career incentives to appear decisive, avoid political backlash); Treasury & markets (prefer rate stability for debt servicing); Politicians (avoid blame for high rates).
The Fed's primary incentive is price stability; with inflation trending down and the economy showing mixed growth, a hike would risk recession and political criticism. Historical patterns show the Fed pauses after a series of hikes once inflation eases, making a further increase less likely. [ensemble: incentives 35%, history 35%, signals 35%; median 35%, spread 0pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
economics · mirror
OPEN
Gold above $6k in 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'gold-to-6k-by-end-of-2026').
32%
our P(YES) · confidence med
vs crowd 35% -3pts
⚙ incentive map Central banks (store value, hedge currency risk), institutional investors (portfolio diversification, performance fees), gold mining firms (higher stock price, financing), analysts/banks (forecast credibility, client retention), media (clicks, narrative)
Central banks and large investors have strong incentives to buy gold when fiat currencies look weak, which pushes price up; banks and analysts may issue bullish forecasts to attract clients, creating self‑fulfilling demand. However, past cycles show that even with supportive incentives, gold often stalls below $6k unless a major shock occurs, so the odds are modestly above base rate but not dominant. [ensemble: incentives 45%, history 32%, signals 22%; median 32%, spread 23pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
tech · mirror
OPEN
Will any frontier model score LOWER than its predecessor on a major benchmark at launch? (mirrors Manifold 'will-any-frontier-model-score-lower').
22%
our P(YES) · confidence med
vs crowd 43% -21pts
⚙ incentive map AI labs (OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, etc.) want headline‑grabbing improvements to attract customers, funding, and talent, so they pressure teams to release models that beat prior versions on key benchmarks. At the same time, engineering timelines, safety gating, and competitive race pressure
The dominant incentive to showcase progress pushes teams to fine‑tune for benchmark scores, but hidden incentives—tight release schedules, safety cut‑backs, and competitive one‑upmanship—often lead to insufficient testing, making regressions plausible. Historical patterns show regressions occur about 30‑35% of the time, and current race intensity slightly raises that likelihood. [ensemble: incentives 38%, history 15%, signals 22%; median 22%, spread 23pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
tech · mirror
OPEN
Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'will-the-us-enact-ai-regulation-for').
35%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 30% +5pts
⚙ incentive map Executive branch (President & agencies) seeks AI leadership and security, incentivized to appear proactive; tech industry lobbyists and major AI firms fear costly compliance and favor voluntary frameworks; Congress balances voter concerns about safety vs economic growth, with many members receiving
The President’s executive order creates a voluntary regime, which satisfies the administration’s security narrative while placating industry. Strong lobbying and upcoming elections dampen appetite for mandatory rules, so the default is limited, opt‑in oversight. Past episodes (e.g., GDPR‑style AI bills) stalled until a crisis forced action, which has not yet materialized. [ensemble: incentives 32%, history 35%, signals 38%; median 35%, spread 6pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
tech · mirror
OPEN
Will any AI achieve a score of 25% on ARC-AGI-3 by the end of 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'will-any-ai-achieve-a-score-of-25-o').
32%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 40% -8pts
⚙ incentive map AI labs (OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, etc.) → funding, talent attraction, reputation; benchmark organizers → prestige, sponsorship, demonstration of progress; investors → ROI on AI breakthroughs; researchers → paper citations, career advancement; hidden incentive: labs may withhold full capabilities
Labs have strong economic and reputational incentives to push scores up, and recent rapid scaling suggests a steep learning curve, but the 25% threshold still requires a non‑incremental breakthrough that historically takes longer than the remaining 9‑12 months. Hence a modest probability. [ensemble: incentives 32%, history 27%, signals 34%; median 32%, spread 7pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
tech · mirror
OPEN
Will there be self driving taxis in London, UK by the end of 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'will-there-be-self-driving-taxis-in-5f5ad7fbb169').
78%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 72% +6pts
⚙ incentive map Wayve/Waymo & other robotaxi firms: profit from early market entry, regulatory goodwill, data acquisition; UK Transport Secretary & London Mayor: political credit for tech leadership, economic growth, job creation; Public & passenger groups: safety concerns vs convenience; Traditional taxi unions: p
Firms face strong revenue incentives to be first movers and have already invested heavily in UK trials; regulators have publicly pledged to allow trials and gain political capital, while safety concerns are mitigated by safety‑driver requirements. Historically, once trial approvals are granted, commercial rollout follows quickly, especially when political actors want to showcase innovation. [ensemble: incentives 78%, history 86%, signals 78%; median 78%, spread 8pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
tech · mirror
OPEN
Will a quantum computer factor a 6-bit number by 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'will-a-quantum-computer-factor-a-6b').
78%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 32% +46pts
⚙ incentive map Quantum research labs (IBM, Google, academic groups) seek high‑profile breakthroughs to attract funding, talent, and media attention; governments and defense agencies fund quantum projects for strategic advantage and thus reward demonstrable milestones; scientists have personal career incentives to
The incentive to claim a visible quantum advantage on any non‑trivial number drives labs to push experiments aggressively; a 6‑bit factorization is technically trivial for current noisy‑intermediate‑scale quantum devices, so the main barrier is demonstration, not fundamental physics. Historical patterns show such low‑bit milestones are achieved once sufficient attention and funding converge. [ensemble: incentives 71%, signals 85%; median 78%, spread 14pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
economics · mirror
OPEN
Will Tesla provide (or be included in) an autonomous ride-hailing service before the end of 2026 (mirrors Manifold 'will-tesla-provide-an-autonomous-dr').
68%
our P(YES) · confidence med
vs crowd 63% +5pts
⚙ incentive map Elon Musk/TSLA execs: boost stock, justify valuation, secure regulatory goodwill, pre‑empt competition; investors: desire upside, avoid loss; regulators: ensure safety, avoid political fallout; consumers: demand low‑cost mobility, but risk aversion to unproven tech.
Musk faces intense pressure to deliver a headline‑making product that validates Tesla's AI narrative and sustains its market cap, while regulators and investors reward any operational rollout, even with limited supervision. Past patterns show Tesla overpromising, but recent supervised deployments and mounting competitive pressure increase the payoff of a 2026 launch, making a yes more likely than the baseline. [ensemble: incentives 68%, history 66%, signals 87%; median 68%, spread 21pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
economics · mirror
OPEN
[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'acx-2026-will-openai-file-for-an-ip').
98%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 75% +23pts
⚙ incentive map OpenAI (founders, executives, investors) → maximize valuation, liquidity, and talent retention; board & shareholders → cash out at peak market valuation; employees → stock options vesting and wealth creation; regulators & public → desire transparency but limited barrier to filing; competitors → moni
OpenAI has already confidentially submitted a draft S‑1, indicating the primary incentive—realizing a massive valuation via public markets—has been acted on. The hidden incentive to lock in founder and early employee wealth before market volatility spikes further pushes filing. Historical patterns show firms in this position file quickly, and there is no regulatory barrier preventing the filing. [ensemble: incentives 98%, history 97%, signals 98%; median 98%, spread 1pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
science · mirror
OPEN
[ACX 2026] Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'acx-2026-will-the-fda-approve-a-psi').
38%
our P(YES) · confidence med
vs crowd 31% +7pts
⚙ incentive map FDA (political pressure to show action on mental health, desire for regulatory success, budget constraints) → seeks approvals that can be fast‑tracked with clear data; Compass Pathways & other psychedelics firms (huge market upside, shareholder value, R&D sunk costs) → push for rapid NDA acceptance;
The FDA faces strong political incentives to demonstrate progress on mental‑health crises, and the administration has signaled willingness to accelerate psychedelic approvals. Companies have aligned their roll‑out to the FDA’s new 1‑2 month review track, creating a coordinated push. However, lingering safety concerns, the novelty of the class, and potential congressional pushback keep the path uncertain, pulling the probability below 0.5. [ensemble: incentives 38%, history 34%, signals 62%; median 38%, spread 28pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
science · mirror
OPEN
Will Starship’s upper stage be caught successfully on SpaceX’s first attempt? (mirrors Manifold 'will-starships-upper-stage-be-caugh').
55%
our P(YES) · confidence med
vs crowd 44% +11pts
⚙ incentive map SpaceX (Elon Musk) – financial returns, investor confidence, regulatory licensing, brand prestige; NASA/US govt – demonstration of US launch capability, funding justification; contractors and employees – job security, bonuses tied to milestones; public/market – hype and stock impact.
SpaceX faces intense pressure to prove full reusability, so it will allocate maximum engineering resources and accept higher risk tolerances, raising the chance above the historical baseline. However, the technical difficulty remains extreme and no prior successful catch exists, keeping the odds modest. [ensemble: incentives 34%, history 55%, signals 55%; median 55%, spread 21pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
society · mirror
OPEN
8. AI a central issue in the 2026 U.S. midterms. Politics get complex, especially regarding job oss [See full title!] (mirrors Manifold '8-ai-a-central-issue-in-the-2026-us').
62%
our P(YES) · confidence med
vs crowd 67% -5pts
⚙ incentive map AI companies & PACs → maximize favorable regulation & public goodwill via campaign donations; major parties → capture high‑value donor money and mobilize tech‑savvy voters; voters → react to perceived job displacement and safety risks; media → amplify controversy for clicks.
AI firms stand to gain from shaping policy and will pour money into candidates, making the issue salient for both parties. Historically, when a fast‑growing industry funds elections, the topic rises to a top‑tier campaign theme, especially when voter anxiety about jobs and safety is high. The combined donor pressure and media amplification push AI to the forefront. [ensemble: incentives 62%, history 35%, signals 62%; median 62%, spread 27pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
society · mirror
OPEN
[ACX 2026] Will the EU require mandatory age verification on social media or AI before 2027? (mirrors Manifold 'acx-2026-will-the-eu-require-mandat').
66%
our P(YES) · confidence med
vs crowd 18% +48pts
⚙ incentive map EU Commission & Parliament: political credit for child protection, avoid regulator backlash, and pre‑empt national bans; tech platforms (Meta, TikTok, etc.): avoid fines, preserve market access, shift compliance cost to third‑party providers; privacy NGOs & digital rights groups: push back on survei
The Commission has already built an EU‑wide verification app and framed it as a pan‑EU solution, giving it political credit and shielding member states from unilateral bans. Platforms face steep fines under the DSA, so they prefer a single compliant system over fragmented national rules. Historical EU roll‑outs of mandatory tech standards under consumer‑protection pressure show a high adoption rate. [ensemble: incentives 66%, history 35%, signals 68%; median 66%, spread 33pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
society · mirror
OPEN
Will at least 5 democratic countries other than Australia ban social media for kids under 16 by the end of 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'will-at-least-5-democratic-countrie').
27%
our P(YES) · confidence low
vs crowd 40% -13pts
⚙ incentive map National governments (democratic) – incentive to appear protective of children, respond to parental pressure, and gain political capital, but also incentive to avoid antagonizing powerful tech lobbyists and not hurt digital economy; tech platforms – incentive to resist bans, lobby, offer self‑regula
Governments gain short‑term political points by banning platforms for kids, but face strong industry lobbying and fiscal concerns about tech sector growth, which historically dampens rapid diffusion of bans. The recent wave sparked by Australia creates a policy diffusion incentive, yet the perverse incentive of tech lobbyists and the modest electoral payoff keep adoption limited. [ensemble: incentives 27%, history 22%, signals 66%; median 27%, spread 44pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
crypto · mirror
OPEN
Bitcoin below $55K in 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'bitcoin-below-55k-in-2026').
63%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 54% +9pts
⚙ incentive map Miners (seek high BTC price to cover electricity costs and profit), institutional investors (risk‑off bias, macro‑inflation concerns, desire to preserve capital), retail speculators (follow momentum and fear of missing out), developers/crypto firms (need price stability for funding and ecosystem gro
Miners need price > $55K to stay profitable after the 2024 halving, so they lobby for bullish sentiment, but macro risk and institutional risk‑off pressure are strong enough to outweigh that, historically leading to a post‑halving dip. The current market sentiment surveys show a majority expecting sub‑$55K, indicating collective bearish pressure will likely push price down. [ensemble: incentives 55%, history 63%, signals 66%; median 63%, spread 11pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
economics · mirror
OPEN
Will the price of oil reach $150 before the end of 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'will-the-price-of-oil-reach-150-bef').
20%
our P(YES) · confidence med
vs crowd 22% -3pts
⚙ incentive map Oil producers (OPEC+, Saudi Arabia, Russia) aim to maximize revenue but avoid demand collapse; major consumers (US, China, EU) seek affordable energy and political stability; financial speculators chase high returns; governments balance fiscal budgets (oil‑dependent) vs inflation pressures; hidden i
Producers will raise output when prices approach $150 to protect market share, while consumers and governments push for demand‑side mitigation (strategic reserves, subsidies). Speculative pressure can lift prices temporarily, but the net incentive to avoid a demand shock keeps prices below $150 on average. Historical analogs show spikes to $150 are rare and short‑lived. [ensemble: incentives 27%, history 12%; median 20%, spread 15pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20
crypto · mirror
OPEN
Will Binance be the largest crypto exchange market at the end of 2026? (mirrors Manifold 'will-binance-be-the-largest-crypto-2701253c7680').
73%
our P(YES) · confidence high
vs crowd 42% +31pts
⚙ incentive map Binance (maintain market share, revenue, network effects, avoid regulatory crackdowns); Competing exchanges (gain share, attract users, but face higher compliance costs, limited liquidity); Regulators (enforce rules that may curb Binance's growth, but also push for industry standards that benefit la
Binance's network effects, deep liquidity, and aggressive product rollout create strong incentives to stay ahead, while rivals lack comparable scale and face higher marginal costs to challenge it. Historical patterns show dominant exchanges rarely lose leadership absent a severe external shock, and no such shock appears imminent. [ensemble: incentives 66%, history 74%, signals 73%; median 73%, spread 8pts]
openai/gpt-oss-120b:free · 0.4-incentive-blind · forecast 2026-06-20