{
  "id": "wm-0001",
  "domain": "crypto",
  "track": "mirror",
  "claim": "BTC/USD close on 2026-07-05 is higher than its 2026-06-21 close.",
  "probability": 0.53,
  "confidence": "high",
  "market_consensus_at_forecast": null,
  "base_rate_p": 0.55,
  "reasoning": "Historical two‑week windows show BTC up about 55% of the time, reflecting a modest upward bias. The current price is exactly at the baseline, giving no momentum advantage, so the forecast leans slightly toward the base rate. Adjusting for the lack of any directional signal brings the probability down a few points. [ensemble: outside 55%, inside 53%, neutral 53%; median 53%, spread 2pts]",
  "analogs": [
    "BTC 2‑week price moves in 2022‑2024",
    "Crypto market 14‑day directional odds across major coins",
    "Ethereum 2‑week price moves 2023‑2025"
  ],
  "resolution_criteria": "YES if BTC USD price on resolution_date > the baseline (BTC USD price captured at forecast creation). Resolved from the price feed.",
  "resolution_date": "2026-07-05T00:00:00Z",
  "created_at": "2026-06-20T18:38:01.802Z",
  "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b:free",
  "engine_version": "0.1-free-ensemble",
  "ensemble": {
    "passes": [
      {
        "lens": "outside",
        "p": 0.55,
        "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b:free"
      },
      {
        "lens": "inside",
        "p": 0.53,
        "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b:free"
      },
      {
        "lens": "neutral",
        "p": 0.53,
        "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b:free"
      }
    ],
    "spread": 0.02
  },
  "status": "resolved_no",
  "resolution": {
    "forecast_id": "wm-0001",
    "resolved_outcome": 0,
    "resolved_at": "2026-07-05T00:35:02.021Z",
    "brier_vs_outcome": 0.2809,
    "brier_vs_base_rate": 0.3025,
    "market_brier": null,
    "beat_market": null,
    "note": "{\"cur\":62967,\"base\":63778,\"op\":\"higher\"}"
  }
}